It is likely President Cyril Ramaphosa will announce the date of the 2024 National Election by the end of next month. The election is expected to yield the closest result since the dawn of democracy in 1994. David Bamber, Editor of the Bluewater Bay Echo, speculates on a possible scenario.
There could be a twist in the tail on the political front in 2024 with an ANC/DA-led government not out of the question! This may sound like a bold, if not ridiculous, statement to make given the current DA narrative of getting rid of the ANC.
Pollsters believe the ANC will gain less than 50% of the national vote at this year’s General Election. That would be the first time since 1994 that the ANC would not have an outright majority in parliament.
The ANC is still likely to be the biggest political party in the country but would have to rule in coalition with one or more other political parties.
A year ago, one would have expected the ANC to turn to the EFF for support in forming a new government. But in the past 12 months, relations between the ruling party and the Red Berets, has soured. The EFF’s firebrand leader, Julius Malema, has made no secret of his desire to get rid of ANC President, Cyril Ramaphosa. Furthermore, there has been a widening chasm in the political agendas of the two parties.
Much will depend on whether the call to voters by former ANC President, Jacob Zuma, not to vote for the ANC has any effect on the ballot box and how well the EFF fares. Zuma plans to support the newly formed Umkhonto we Sizwe party and has openly called on ANC voters to do the same.
Should Zuma’s move in any way split the ANC, it would open the doors for negotiations with the DA to form the next government. The DA would be able to justify a U-turn in its ambitions to rid the country of the ANC on the grounds that the radical element of the ANC has been eliminated.
If the DA inspired “Moonshot Pact” that includes the IFP, Action SA, FF Plus and other smaller parties, garners sufficient numbers of votes to oust the ANC, that is the route they will take. But what if they don’t get the votes they require?
Would the ANC consider a coalition with the DA? In a television interview after he briefly resigned from the ANC, the Deputy President of the party’s Veteran League, Mavuso Msimang, suggested a coalition with the DA would be the most stable the country could have, if it came to a coalition government.
This probably sent shockwaves through the ranks of the DA’s “Moonshot” partners. DA leader, John Steenhuisen, was quick to deny that such a move would be contemplated. But could it change its mind if the pro-Zuma faction was no longer in the ANC? Would the other members of the Moonshot Pact consider joining the coalition if they were offered a share of the pie?
Should the Moonshot Pact fail to unseat the ANC, the question that has to be asked is: Would South Africa be better off with an ANC/MK/EFF government, or an ANC/DA/Moonshot Pact government?
Until now, the DA has maintained the line that they would rather be an effective Opposition Party that can hold government to account, than help to keep the ANC in power. Has this really helped? The country has continued to slide into turmoil. Corruption and crime are rife, nearly every state-owned enterprise has almost collapsed, unemployment is at record levels and loadshedding is still with us.
If the Moonshot Pact fails to produce the goods – and the DA retains its stance – the IFP, Action SA and a few minor parties may be willing to step up to the plate to help decide the fate of South Africa.
The voters will face a difficult choice. But perhaps the biggest challenge will be for the political parties. Will they be able to accept the challenge of making the compromises that are best for the country, rather than what is only in their own party’s self-interest?
